There’s an interesting development in this week’s AVIXA COVID-19 Impact Survey: respondents in some states say they’re seeing work open up and opportunities increase—slowly—while others are seeing almost complete losses in revenue and sales. [related]
The sixth week of results also show a bit of a “plateau effect,” says AVIXA senior director of market intelligence Sean Wargo, meaning “more and more companies have settled into current situation.”
The majority of respondents to this week’s COVID-19 Impact Survey say they’re still seeing delayed orders, going through staff reductions through layoffs and furloughs and suffering through revenue reduction, but there are still opportunities in some region, particularly for remote and consulting work.
Meanwhile, AVIXA continues to support the additional $310 billion added to the stimulus recovery bill for the Paycheck Protection Program in support of small businesses that need financial assistance, says Wargo.
About half of this week’s AVIXA COVID-19 Impact Survey respondents say they expect AV installation work to get back to more of a normal pace by July, while about one-third are looking at June as the target for the turnaround. More than 40 percent say the business will rebound some time between July and September.
Unified communications and collaboration, content distribution and increasing the points of distribution and interaction for digital signage remain three popular targets for AV integrators that are able to do work now and all three could have staying power, says Wargo.
Distance learning is another area with potential, as universities might reimagine the way they deliver content to students who aren’t on campus regularly, utilizing more of a control room-like approach to make the option more appealing to a wider audience, he says.
Another COVID-19 Impact Survey finding: we could also see a reimagination of the office space as more workers get used to doing their jobs from home more often and company leaders explore the benefits of such an arrangement.
“That’s the sweet spot for our industry,” says Wargo. “There’s still going to be a desire to reach people where they are.”
More from COVID-19 Impact Survey
Consulting and remote service is becoming more common for AV integrators during the pandemic, says Wargo. June remains “a pretty solid guess, if not hopefully a reality, for when a reasonable amount of project work might be allowed to resume.” It might take until at least the fall for live events, he says.
In the meantime, flexibility and creativity will be important traits for companies looking to make it to the other side of the downturn, says Wargo.
“Even if it’s not smaller jobs, it’s different jobs,” he says. “The nature of the work seems to be shifting. Creativity is the story and the name of the game. Those that will bridge the gap and do reasonably well are the ones that will be creative and be willing to pivot as demands change.
“It’s a chance to experiment and to expand your business for the future. The revenue models for some things are going to shift. How you’re going to monetize that will future-proof you down the road. Being willing and able to adapt opens up possibilities for us down the road.”
Having AVIXA’s training catalog open through mid-June gives AVIXA members “a chance to update, refine and improve upon skills you already had” at a time when there’s not as much installation work going on, says Wargo.
“If you think of this as pent-up demand, end users are going to look for providers that can address their needs,” he says. “The more we’re prepared as demand unlocks and matures, we can be on the receiving end on that.
“It gives you that adrenalin boost. It’s a great opportunity to build your skills, but there’s a push with some companies to slim down right now. Getting too slim can affect your ability to meet the demand when it unlocks. You’re in a good chance to grow your business,” says Wargo.
It’s probably counterintuitive for most companies to be thinking about hiring, but because of layoffs and furloughs across the AV industry, there are some “free agents” who might not be available in a busier time for the market. That could lead to familiar faces in new places, says Wargo.
“Where they’re able to, I’m sure it’s being considered,” he says. “There’s a lot of labor out there for the taking. It’s a buyer’s market to be sure. The dominant trend is going to be more of a contraction than an expansion. It could unlock fairly quickly. It was a different slump and it could be a different recovery.”
The same is true when it comes to the dizzying pace of mergers and acquisitions that was a dominant story in AV for most of the past five years, says Wargo.
“It’s a great buyer’s market,” he says. “Manufacturers can add more product capabilities or geography and the same thing in integration. It could allow them to open up new markets or capabilities.
“The market’s going to look different. The required skill sets are going to look different. The most nimble of companies tend to be the small ones. Out of the ashes of some companies that are forced to close, we’ll see some new companies that look different than what we’re used to,” says Wargo.
