NSCA executive director Chuck Wilson got a first-hand look at how Donald Trump’s election as the 45th president can cause major changes in a most unexpected place.
Wilson was part of a post-election legislative and policy summit in Houston, which kicked off the morning after Trump was elected.
The somewhat-surprising election result had immediate effects, causing organizers to shuffle and refocus their agenda for the two-day summit, and the biggest takeaway for Wilson is Trump’s presidency could have major ramifications in many levels of the U.S. economy during the next four years—or more.
“People were describing what happened [with the presidential election] as a ‘political earthquake,'” says Wilson, noting the original agenda for the summit was targeted at how the landscape would look with four more years of Democratic leadership under the presumptive favorite, Hillary Clinton.
“People were describing what happened [with the presidential election] as a ‘political earthquake.”
—Chuck Wilson
Wilson will share some of his thoughts on his time in the so-called political think tank during a one-hour webinar, “Prepare for Major Changes in 2017 and Beyond!” on Tuesday at noon E.T.
In the webinar, Wilson will focus on impending changes in health care, taxes, labor laws, interest rates and regulations and talk about how they’ll affect integrators in the next four years and beyond.
The highlight of the two days for Wilson was when he got a few minutes to talk about NSCA’s Ignite program, which is targeted at bringing more young people into the AV integration space.
Wilson laughs, saying he “went on a bit of a rant,” saying the U.S. is falling behind the rest of the world in its math and science skills and wondering why No Child Left Behind didn’t help that standing and now Common Core is struggling to make any sort of headway.
Much of the discussion centered on how the campaign promises Trump made on his way to getting elected will translate into actual policy and laws.
Wilson, who was invited to speak about concerns within the technology industry, focused on possible changes to federal labor laws and the upcoming change to the overtime law, although most of the politicians and others at the summit agree that piece of legislation will be repealed once Trump is officially sworn into office in January.
“The Democratic contingent in power over the past eight years has had a strong voice with the National Labor Relations Board,” says Wilson. “People expect it to be more pro-business, rather than pro-labor, under Trump.”
What to Expect from Trump
Wilson also expects to see a focus on manufacturing with Trump as president, since he’s expressed a desire to rebuild the U.S. infrastructure.
If the Trump administration eliminates the Affordable Care Act, that could have an effect on pharmaceutical and health care stocks, says Wilson. He also heard talk about offering large companies tax credits to bring jobs and business back to the U.S., a phenomenon called repatriation.
Even before President Obama leaves the Oval Office, there’s talk about an interest rate hike, says Wilson, a move that could lead to higher wages for employees in all walks of life.
Other conversation touched on the futures of the Dodd-Frank consumer protection act and the Davis-Bacon Act, which focuses on prevailing wages for public projects.
Wilson heard talk about Trump’s plan to target China as a currency manipulator, which will mean more tariffs and penalties are applied to products coming into the U.S. from China or to China from the U.S. to create a free trade scenario.
Wilson learned how far into the future legislators plan when considering new tax plans and other financial decisions.
The Joint Committee on Taxation and Revenue have to think 10 years into the future, he says, even though that’s well beyond their elected terms in the House and Senate.
Related: Trump’s Policies Will Definitely Impact Tech Industry, But How?
He wonders what policies Trump will put forward to help cut the national debt, with the gross domestic product growing at about 1.5 percent every year but needing to be at least 3 percent per year to pay down the debt.
Wilson certainly expects a simplification of the tax code to eliminate the loopholes that have allowed Trump to avoid paying taxes for years.
“Having better jobs has a significant impact on the tax base,” says Wilson. Interestingly, Clinton’s plans would’ve resulted in a hike of about $2 trillion in the deficit and Trump’s would mean $1.2 to $1.3 trillion, so it also needs some tweaks.
Trump has said he wants to trim the corporate tax rate to about 15 percent, but Wilson learned it needs to be somewhere between 25 and 28 percent to outpace entitlement costs for programs such as Medicare and welfare.
“People are far more worried about programs and jobs than they are about the deficit,” says Wilson.
Based on Trump’s plans, Wilson plans to heed the advice of investing in real estate and U.S.-based companies.
He also expects Trump and his administration to be “tearing into [the North American Free Trade Agreement]” shortly after taking the oath Jan. 20.
