The February 2021 AVIXA Pro-AV Business Index showed impressive signs of life on both the sales and employment sides, with the former rebounding nicely from a dip to 52.0 in January to 55.9 this month and the employment index reaching its highest level since the pandemic at 52.2, up from 51.0.
The monthly index has shown “consistent growth” since the coronavirus outbreak last spring, says AVIXA economic analyst Peter Hansen, but he’s particularly enthusiastic about the employment number since “employment decisions are so carefully considered.”
The sales number indicates “strength and positivity” in the pro AV industry, although it’s hardly a guarantee that a full-scale recovery is on, he says.
“It’s not like we’ve really clearly turned the corner,” says Hansen, but employment “is a strong and resistant indicator.”
Related: AVIXA Pro-AV Business Index Isn’t Just About the Monthly Numbers
AVIXA senior director of market intelligence Sean Wargo agrees with Hansen, but seems to believe the worst is in the rearview mirror.
“Any month is a little bit of an unknown, but I expect us to stay in the growth cycle,” he says. “It’s volatile. Any kind of recovery period, you have peaks and valleys. Customers hedge and spend based on how their businesses are improving.
“The story at large for the pandemic with vaccines rolling out means we are more likely to stay in a sustained growth period. When companies are optimistic about their outlook, they start to add staff. That’s a good sign of strength in the market,” says Wargo.
Inside the Pro-AV Business Index
North America is also showing steady progress in controlling the COVID-19 spread, says Hansen, and with the ramp-up in supplies of the vaccine, that trend should continue. Could that mean we see live events back in full force in the summer? What about the index? Is it headed toward 60 or higher?
“The pace of the virus is the pace of the economies in different parts of the world,” says Wargo, noting North American companies across the AV landscape are doing a better job in turning things around than their overseas counterparts. That doesn’t mean it’s time to celebrate just yet though, he says.
“Even though they see return to customers, the return of revenue is a bit harder,” says Wargo. “This is why diversification is so important. Different parts of the economy are going to return at different rates.”
Hansen says it could be a while, though, before employment reaches 2019 levels.
“It’s going to be years before job totals get back to where they were pre-pandemic,” he says. “That doesn’t mean the labor market is bad. It just means it’s going to be weaker and there will be a little more softness.”
Unified communications and collaboration have flourished since the pandemic, but Hansen sees the education sector as another one chock full of potential for AV integrators, especially with $100 billion in the most recent economic stimulus package going to schools.
“Schools are always a solid source of AV revenue,” says Hansen, noting the need for connectivity and the expectation that education officials will spend more money to upgrade their AV technology for in-person technology.
Wargo points to “serious pent-up demand” in singling out the hospitality vertical as an area that could see AV thrive.
“It’s a hard-hit market, but there’s a lot of opportunity as hotels and venues look to change their experiences,” he says.
